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Daily new COVID-19 cases increased in the fall 2020 semester by 1.87 cases per 100,000 population.

Colleges with in-person classes are in counties with rapidly increasing COVID-19 cases (Figure).

Reopening colleges was associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths.

COVID-19 spread in fall 2020 semester external icon. Causal impacts of teaching modality on U.S. Limitations: Disease prevalence was based on national estimates no analyses of testing strategies later in the semester.ī.

Costs estimates for given strategies were estimated. The analysis evaluated five strategies: (1) classifying students with symptoms as having COVID-19 (no testing) 2) testing done on symptomatic students, (3) testing all students, (4) testing all students and retesting symptomatic students with a negative first test, and (5) testing all students and retesting all students with a negative first test. Methods: A decision tree analysis was used to evaluate testing strategies for safely repopulating a university with 20,000 students. At higher prevalence of infection, repeat testing will detect more true positives per test, but will cost more.Testing all students on arrival, and again 7 days later, will detect the greatest number of cases.

Using only symptom-based screening, less than 50% of true positive cases will be detected.

Strategies that included RT-PCR testing of in-coming students identified more cases than symptom-based screening alone however, all strategies failed to detect a portion of the cases.

Journal of Adolescent Health (November 3, 2020). Evaluation of COVID-19 testing strategies for repopulating college and university campuses: A decision tree analysis.

Optimal testing strategies for in-person classes and variables associated with likelihood of holding in-person classes at colleges and universities are discussed in the following papers.Ī. Safely bringing students and faculty back to campus will require testing and mitigation measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Six out of 10 colleges and universities re-opened in the fall with in-person classes external icon, either full-time or combined with online classes. The increase in COVID-19 cases among younger persons points to a need to implement effective mitigation strategies to protect college students returning to campus, as well as the neighboring communities.